Trend, abrupt change, and periodicity of streamflow in the mainstream of Yellow River

Bin He¹, Chiyuan Miao¹, Wen Shi^2,3

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

² Research Center of Land, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, Guangdong 519087, China;

³ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

Abstract: The Yellow River is the second largest river in China. The annual runoff of which is only about 2 % of China’s total, but contributes to 9 % of China’s GDP and directly supports 12% of the population. Today, the water shortage in the Yellow River basin has been aggravated due to rapid population growth and global warming. In order to best maximize water resources management, the natural and observed streamflow series from six hydrologic gauging stations (Guide, Lanzhou, Hekou, Sanmenxia, Huayuankou, and Lijin) are obtained, and the linear regression, Mann–Kendall test, and wavelet transform methods were used to detect the characteristic of streamflow variation from 1956 to 2007. The results show that: (1) both the natural streamflow and observed streamflow present a downward trend over the past 52 years, and the trends are intensified downstream; the decreasing rate of observed streamflow is more rapid than that of the natural streamflow; (2) most of the abrupt changes in natural streamflow and observed streamflow appear in the late 1980s to early 1990s through the result of the Mann–Kendall test; and (3) other than the Guide station, the streamflows at the rest of the stations appear to have strongest periodicity of 19–21 years with a 52-year scale. The results of this study imply that less precipitation and warmer climate in the basin are the primary factors that cause this decreasing trend of natural streamflow. Additionally, the rapid ascent of water consumption by human being results in the reduction of observed streamflow further. Furthermore, human activities like reservoir construction, soil and water conservation measures, etc. influence the streamflow as well. It is recommended that the society takes some effective countermeasures to cope with the water shortage.

Keywords: Streamflow variation; Yellow River; Mann–Kendall; Wavelet transform.