Chunyang He^a, Yuanyuan Zhao^b, Jie Tian^c, Peijun Shi^a

^a State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

^b College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

^c Department of International Development, Community, and Environment, Clark University, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA 01610, United States.

 

Abstract: The effective modeling of the urban landscape dynamics in a megalopolitan cluster area (MCA) is essential to understanding its spatial evolution process. However, existing urban landscape dynamic models based on cellular automata (CA) are limited in that they do not consider urban flows (e.g., flows of people, material, and information) between the different cities/towns in an MCA. This paper proposes a new megalopolitan landscape dynamic model (MLDM) that is better suited for simulating the urban landscapes in an MCA by combining a gravitational field model (GFM) with a CA model. The GFM was used to model the influence of inter-city urban flows and to refine the transition rules of the CA model. The MLDM was applied to simulate the urban landscape in the MCA of Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan, and produced more accurate simulation results than the CA model that did not account for urban flows. The MLDM-based prediction of future landscapes suggested that urbanization will continue in the region through 2020, especially in a few ‘hotspot’ areas. Close attention should be paid to these areas for strategic regional planning and environmental protection in this heartland of China.

 

Keywords: Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan megalopolitan; cluster area; Cellular automata model; Gravitational field model; Megalopolitan cluster area; Urban flow; Urban landscape dynamics.