Xueqin Liu^1,3, Ning Li^1,2,3, Wei Xie^1,3, Jidong Wu^1,2,3, Peng Zhang^1,3, Zhonghui Ji^1,3

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;

² Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China;

³ Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China.

 

Abstract: This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I_SDS) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I_SDS) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I_SDS was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk.

 

Keywords: Severe dust storm disaster; Contributing factors; Hazard risk curve; Return period; Risk assessment; Inner Mongolia.