¹. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

². Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

³. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, P. R. China, Beijing, China

Abstract: A clear distinction between disaster prediction and risk assessment is necessary for effective disaster reduction. Disaster prediction models objects that face hazard, damage, or loss, while risk assessment models the likelihoods of the scene in future adverse incidents. In terms of mathematics, a model for disaster prediction can be an explicit function, while a model for risk assessment might be an implicit function. There are at least three criteria to judge whether a model is suitable for risk assessment: (i) available information is incomplete, (ii) the scene in the future is very uncertain, and (iii) the model depends on comparing the current situation with some known patterns. In this article, we use the case of an earthquake to show the difference between disaster prediction and risk assessment.

 

Keywords: disaster prediction; risk assessment; probability; scene; earthquake