Spatial and temporal changes of agro-meteorological disasters affecting maize production in China since 1990

Zhao Zhang¹, Yi Chen¹, Pin Wang¹, Shuai Zhang², Fulu Tao², Xiaofei Liu¹

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

² Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.

Abstract: Agro-meteorological (AM) disasters have been reported to be more frequent with climate change. In this study, the spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of major AM disasters affecting maize production are investigated by analyzing observed records at 224 national AM stations in China from 1991 to 2009. To investigate the temporal changes of the disasters with climate warming, the whole study period was separated into a cool period (1991–2000) and a warmer one (2000–2009). We found drought was the most common disaster with a frequency of 49 %, followed by chilling injures (19.46 %). The frequency of disasters affecting maize increased significantly during the reproductive growth period than the vegetative growth period. Spatial patterns of major disaster frequency were characterized by region-specific, with more cold stress in northeastern China, drought in northern and western China, and rainstorms in southwestern China. Our study highlighted that the frequency and scope both increased significantly, implying a potential increasing risk for maize production. It is critical and important for local farmers and governors to take reasonable and timely adaptation measures based on the latest disasters’ features to mitigate the potential yield loss from AM disasters in order to ensure food security in China.

Keywords: Maize production; Agro-meteorological (AM) disasters; Drought; Chilling injury; Climate change.