Kai Liu1,2, Ming Wang 1,2,*, Yinxue Cao 2,Weihua Zhu 2, Jinshan Wu 3, Xiaoyong Yan 4,*
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, China
2Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, China
3School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, China
4Systems Science Institute, Beijing Jiaotong University, 100044 Beijing, China
*Address correspondence to Ming Wang, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, #19 Xinjiekou Wai Ave. Beijing 100875, China; tel: +86 10 58803027; fax: +86 10 58800219; wangming@bnu.edu.cn. For I-O model, contact Xiaoyong Yan, yanxy@bjtu.edu.cn.
Abstract: Climate change and its projected natural hazards have an adverse impact on the functionality and operation of transportation infrastructure systems. This study presents a comprehensive framework to analyze the risk to transportation infrastructure networks that are affected by natural hazards. The proposed risk analysis method considers both the failure probability of infrastructure components and the expected infrastructure network efficiency and capacity loss due to component failure. This comprehensive approach facilitates the identification of high-risk network links in terms of not only their susceptibility to natural hazards but also their overall impact on the network. The Chinese national rail system and its exposure to rainfall-related multi-hazards are used as a case study. The importance of various links is comprehensively assessed from the perspectives of topological, efficiency, and capacity criticality. Risk maps of the national railway system are generated, which can guide decisive action regarding investments in preventative and adaptive measures to reduce risk.
Keywords: Transportation network; Risk analysis; Natural hazards; Failure probability; Random Forest
Published in Risk Analysis,DOI: 10.1111/risa.12968，http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12968/full
