Fu Bojie 1,2,* Li Yan 3
1、State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, China;
2、Joint Center for Global Change Studies, China;
3、Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, USA
Abstract: The remarkably fast and recent growth of the human system has introduced tremendous changes in both the natural and social systems of our planet. Humans have dramatically modified the Earth system and are playing an increasingly dominant role in altering its components (atmosphere, land, ocean, ecosystems, etc.) and processes (e.g. carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle and water cycle). For example, the rate of change of atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O increased by over 700, 1000, and 300 times (respectively) in the period after the Green Revolution when compared to pre-industrial rates (see Fig. 1). The corresponding increase in the rate of change for population is about 2000 times. Human consumption of natural resources, and the resulting pollution/emissions, is nearing the global limits for continued human habitability. The biosphere is approaching planetary critical transitions and currently there is no clear indication that global population and per capita resource use will stop growing. The total impact of these human-driven changes threatens to overwhelm natural systems and the many critical functions that the Earth system provides for humans. The Earth system in turn has significant impacts on the human system. Understanding the future of human sustainability therefore requires modeling that accurately captures the complex bidirectional interactions between these two systems.
(For details, see the appendix)
Published in National Science Review, 3: 397–398, 2016
