报告人：魏婷

题目：评估不同国家集团历史排放责任的模拟实验进展

 

报告人：梁晓

题目：Ensemble Kalman Filter with Time Dependent Inflation on Error Covariance Matrix

介绍：In the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the forecast error covariance matrix is estimated as the sampling covariance matrix of the ensemble of perturbed forecast states. However, such estimations may be far from the true forecast error covariance matrix if the perturbed forecast states are not samples of population of the forecast state or the ensemble size is not large enough. A time-dependent inflation approach on forecast error covariance matrix based on the maximum-likelihood method has been developed and tested in some toy models.