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学术讲座——Climate change risk management: gaps and research opportunities
发布时间: 2015-12-17  

2015年第24期
Climate change risk management: gaps and research opportunities
2015年12月18日(周五)上午10:00-12:00
北京师范大学京师科技大厦(南院)B座934
主讲人:Jochen Hinkel Board member Global Climate Forum (GCF), Berlin, Germany.
主讲人简介:

 Dr. Jochen Hinkel is senior researcher at the Global Climate Forum (GCF) in Berlin, a lecturer at the Division of Resource Economics at Humboldt University in Berlin and member of the Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS). Recently he has been a Lead Author on the coastal chapter of the Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He obtained his PhD in environmental system analysis from Wageningen University with a thesis on the integration of knowledge from natural and social sciences for assessing vulnerability. At GCF Hinkel leads the research process on Adaptation and Social Learning. His current research focuses on the governance of human-environment interactions in the context of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, with a particular focus on coastal systems. Dr. Hinkel leads the development of the DIVA model, an integrated model for assessing coastal impacts and adaptation, which is jointly developed by a number of leading European coastal research institutions. He is also Lead Author on the guidance on tools and research methodologies for assessing vulnerability and adaptation currently developed by UNEP funded Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA). Prior to his academic engagement Dr. Hinkel has worked as a development practitioner, software developer and information technology consultant. For more information see: http://www.globalclimateforum.org/index.php?id=dr-jochen-hinkel .

讲座内容简介:

 Adapting to uncertain climate change entails a diversity of decisions in diverse situations including local-level agricultural production, ecosystem management, large-scale infrastructure investment or national-level adaptation policy development. A range of decision analytical frameworks are available and have been applied to these situations for identifying preferable adaptations options. Frameworks include “classical” ones such as multi-criteria, cost-benefit or cost effectiveness as well as new developments such as adaptive management, robust decision making or adaptation pathways. A critical point in any effort to manage climate change risks is the choice of an appropriate decision making framework as well as well as the deployment of climate information that is aligned to the framework and the underlying adaptation situation. Not all frameworks are applicable to all types of adaptation situations and there is often a gap between available climate information and the information needs of standard decision-making frameworks (e.g. benefit-cost analysis). Against this background, I first discuss different types of adaptation decision situation that arise under climate change and present criteria for choosing a framework appropriate in a give case. Criteria include decision horizon, availability of models for projecting residual impacts, relative costs of options, current risks due to climate variability and flexibility of options. Next, I zoom in and discuss specific gaps and challenges that arise in the context of coastal adaptation decision making. These include the way uncertainty is treated in the IPCC climate and sea-level rise scenarios, which differs from the treatment of uncertainty in risk management. I illustrate these issues with the help of adaptation case studies taken from the literature.

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地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室

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