On September 30th, 2009, the Integrated Risk Management Institute of ESPRE Lab holds its 12th session of project seminar as scheduled, at which, two students make relevant academic reports.
Student Guo Zhixing introduces in detail the preliminary achievements of the study of the fire occurrence probability in the Grassland Hulunbuir. He, based on natural and personal factors which may cause fire disasters in grassland, evaluates the fire occurrence probability and analyzes the spatial distribution of fire occurrence probability in grassland by using two-dimensional Logistic regression model and fire data of Hulunbuir from 1995 to 2008. His research shows that:
(1) The fire occurrence probability of Hulunbuir is remarkably influenced by both human activities and natural conditions, among which, explanatory variables causing increase of fire occurrence probability are relative humidity, precipitation and distance from road edge.
(2) The areas with higher fire occurrence probability in Hulunbuir mainly include northeastern part of Hulunbuir, that is, from the aspect of administrative divisions, Chenba'erhu Banner, Hailar City, and northern part of Ewenke Autonomous Banner.
Student Liao Chuan then introduces the basic information of disaster insurance investigation made during his summer vocation and the analysis result of questionnaire investigation. He makes a series of hypothesis tests and analyzes the correlation between the reasons why residents purchase hazard insurance. The result of his research shows that, the willingness of residents to purchase hazard insurance is correlated to local economic level, experience of hazards, experience of insurance purchasing, and their assessment of the importance of hazard insurance. Now Liao is attempting to establish a correlation model of willingness to purchase disaster insurance.
In the end of the seminar, teachers provide valuable comments and suggestions on their methods and contents of research, which are helpful to the improvement of their researches